The earnings estimates for each stock in the group were updated
yesterday using data from Zacks, as posted on the internet. Then
using yesterday's closing prices, the PE for this fiscal year and
next fiscal year can be computed for each stock in the group.
Finally, to make a comparison for the 2 year earnings period, the
earnings for 2 years are summed and a PE computed using yesterdays
closing prices. A corresponding 2 year PE is also computed.
This tabular information is shown in the following table. Several
observations can be made from the table - a few of which are listed
below.
For next years earnings, 3 stocks have no available estimates and 2
or the stocks, FSII and WFR have negative earnings projections.
Based on the fact that FSII has been one of the better performing
stocks lately, can an earnings revision be far behind?
The sum of the group earnings for this year at ($0.98) are still in
negative territory. This is a big improvement, however, from 3 weeks
ago when the number was ($4.02) and 3 weeks prior to that when the
number was ($5.10). There has been a "quickening" in performance
upgrades during the last 3 weeks. There is a good chance the
estimate may go into positive territory in the next 3 weeks for the
first time in a very long time. Just to list another checkpoint to
illustrate how far the recovery has progressed since the first of the
year, on 15 January, this year's earnings for the group was estimated
at ($7.03) and next year's earnings was estimated at $20.60.
Using next years earning, the projected group PE is 22. The last
column in the table computes a number by taking the sum of earnings
for the 2 years - then dividing this number in half - and then
dividing this number into yesterday's closing price. Based on this
computation, the group PE is 47.
The table is sorted by descending value in terms of the sum of the 2
years earnings for each stock. Based on this method, NVLS sits in
the top spot. Directly to the right of this column, this number can
be compared to the 2 year PE, or 24 for NVLS. Scanning down the 2
year PE column, MASK jumps out at you with a 2 year PE of 11. MASK
is projecting solid earnings for both years and yet is selling at a
relatively low price. Only 2 other stocks in the group, IMSC and
AFLX, have 2 year PEs under 20.
05/21/99 SUM
EARNINGS EST CLOSE P/E 2 YEAR 2 YEAR
SYMBOL CURR YR NEXT YR PRICE CURR YR NEXT YR EARN PE
NVLS 1.54 2.98 53.25 35 18 4.52 24
TER 1.63 2.58 54.06 33 21 4.21 26
VECO 1.53 2.25 35.63 23 16 3.78 19
COHU 1.17 2.24 30.88 26 14 3.41 18
AMAT 1.08 2.20 59.56 55 27 3.28 36
DPMI 1.04 1.76 43.19 42 25 2.80 31
WJ 0.90 1.75 25.94 29 15 2.65 20
MASK 1.08 1.27 13.50 13 11 2.35 11
KLAC 0.69 1.63 49.25 71 30 2.32 42
ETEC 0.73 1.42 28.50 39 20 2.15 27
ASML 0.36 1.40 44.56 124 32 1.76 51
PLAB 0.58 1.10 23.06 40 21 1.68 27
ATMI 0.54 1.09 23.63 44 22 1.63 29
IMSC 0.63 0.82 11.00 17 13 1.45 15
HELX 0.38 0.93 18.00 47 19 1.31 27
ASYT -0.05 1.34 19.56 15 1.29 30
CYMI 0.04 1.02 21.31 533 21 1.06 40
BRKS 0.04 0.87 21.13 528 24 0.91 46
CMOS -0.47 1.20 30.38 25 0.73 83
KLIC -0.55 1.24 22.31 18 0.69 65
NANO 0.03 0.65 7.00 233 11 0.68 21
PHTN 0.04 0.55 9.44 236 17 0.59 32
AFLX -0.20 0.50 2.31 5 0.30 15
UTEK -0.16 0.45 13.56 30 0.29 94
LTXX -0.21 0.36 7.69 21 0.15 103
EGLS -0.56 0.58 15.25 26 0.02 1525
LRCX -1.65 1.58 30.56 19 -0.07
SFLX -0.23 0.15 3.63 24 -0.08
PRIA -0.78 0.68 28.13 41 -0.10
SMTL -0.47 0.35 8.94 26 -0.12
MTSN -0.19 7.13 -0.19
SVGI -0.80 0.61 14.88 24 -0.19
ASEC -0.29 1.06 -0.29
GSNX -1.02 0.58 13.88 24 -0.44
MICN -0.47 11.00 -0.47
SFAM -0.74 0.22 14.81 67 -0.52
CFMT -1.15 0.16 8.69 54 -0.99
TGAL -1.07 0.06 3.63 61 -1.01
FSII -0.99 -0.34 8.44 -1.33
WFR -2.96 -0.88 7.94 -3.84
TOTALS -0.98 37.35 846.67 22 36.37 47 |
