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Politics : RAMTRONIAN's Cache Inn
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To: Harvey Allen who wrote (7088)5/22/1999 5:49:00 PM
From: Jonas  Read Replies (1) of 14464
 
TI backs DDR memories with low-voltage logic
ebnews.com

" TI logic managers believe DDR and SLDRAM formats will eventually beata competing DRAM architecture promoted by Rambus Inc. and Intel Corp. In addition to its larger die size, "the Rambus design adds costs because it requires special testers and special assembly," Agis said."

Don't know if I'll have much more to say on this thread in the
future so some possibly final concluding remarks:

Have been reading a lot of "stuff" on DRAM ever since INTC's
decision in favor of RMBS...e.g. that industry analyst that didn't know why rmtr would want to serve the PC market, or that analyst's price target based on 43m shares outstanding, or that high single digit price target by that other analyst without giving a hint as
to what catalysts might push that price to towards the target zone... (oh that "greater good" thing was also funny) and have come across only a handful of attempts to impartially assess DRDRAM's technological merits - once came across an article mentioning rmtr & ARM in the same sentence (that was the first time I didn't post an article here mentioning rmtr...that was really too much) - In short came across a lot of crap...(does anybody here want to pay me for writing stupid things? I'm willing to negotiate)
At least my previously stated opinion on DRDRAM made out to be
more than it really is has support above - as always it remains to be
seen what's really going to happen in the market.

The way I see it:

Samsung: with a little cash infusion by INTC and development
seemingly (to me) ahead of the pack and one of the remaining cache
suppliers to INTC obviously is motivated - Toshiba & and NEC can
supply Sony - thus have a ready market - since flawless DRDRAMs
are not as important in the game market, the latter is a very suitable target area. Micron seemingly (to me) is still not euphoric about DRDRAM despite the cash infusion -> O.K. they are the assurance for INTC of ready supply?

BUT

considering the effort that INTC put in and still being so late
indicates considerable technical challenges - probably far higher
than what INTC initially expected - will any major individual hurdles,
once overcome allow fairly simple continued improvement or are there
going to be more tough hurdles to be overcome with each new Rambus-based design? Forget die size & royalties - the point might be that DRDRAM achieves its performance only with flawless leading edge technology - in many cases notyet fully matured/mastered processes while DDR will yield similar performance using established/familiar processes... no real risk for INTC since they can just
switch back if they feel the need... For those that got the cash infusion the ROI formula is a bit different than for the rest....Now there are some industry analysts foresee consolidation...obviously the players are aware of that and don't want to be pushed out...and will put up a fight...as far as RMBS stock is concerned I'm
looking for a nice bubble to develop...the funalysts know how to
create one - than at one point superior alternatives can not be overlooked anymore - by which time the fast-buck artists will
have finished making a killing on rmtr prefrred stock and the co.
will be worth a look again...I'm not in yet for the bubble. I have
tried to assess what rmbs' strength really are (except INTC's
backing - I have to pass on that one)

Jonas

Oh - on rmtr management nothing here to substantiate the view that
they have shareholder interests in mind - rather the opposite with repeat-after-the-investment-boutiquer statements of the effectiveness of the financing method chosen - other companies have come up with
better arrangements after renogotiation of terms of convertible
pref. stock (as these theft-enablers are unfittingly referred to).

Last: since there's been discussions of FRAM replacing EEPROM and Flash and MRAM and "stuff" like that some might want to check out
TSEMF (or check "into" the thread -if my memory doesn't fool me the
CEO actually invented EEPROM (don't quote me here) and intends to
replace Flash with Microflash...will they do it?

One last idea I will not get into: A cost-benefit assessment of
the penalty of willful patent infringement vs. the benefit gained by
obstructing the competitor and return on own technolog(ies)....

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