To All, Tech Review Revue: Outstanding issue, with much more in the way of macro comments this time around.
1. The authors discuss the role of Japan as the world's banker and how there is no country that can or will replace them. One telling sentence about emerging markets: "Until Japan recovers, there is no possibility of a recovery in Asia." Think higher oil prices are helping? <g>
2. I have been saying for awhile that the vaunted recovery in Emerging Markets is one of analyst fantasy overcoming reality. The authors seem to agree with notes like "Hong Kong is expected to contract 3.5% in 1999." "South Korea will fall another 4%" BTW, I think that is optimistic given South Korea's dependence upon swooning DRAM prices. But, then, maybe EMachines can save them. <g> Argentina's industrial production down 10%. Lower retail sales and higher unemployment in Mexico. Falling industrial production in Brazil. Folks, the emerging markets do not recover without these players.
3. The United States has negative savings, soaring debt, falling capacity utilization, yadda, yadda, yadda. What should I buy Monday morning for a double before lunch time? <VBG> All is true and has been said before. However, it is fun to hear the authors' turn of phrase, "The US is on a mad borrowing binge." However, what is new is the hint that not all is well with the reported unemployment numbers. C'mon guys, the govt. that squeezed the juice out of the CPI calculations and that overstates productivity wouldn't dare mess with unemployment, too. That is absurd. Next thing you know, these Canucks will be telling us our President has messed around with other women. <g> Also, a nice magnifying glass look at how Fannie and Freddie went to bat to help reliquefy the dying bond market in October.
4. They seem to think The Balkan Blast will soon be over and that that will mean falling commodity prices. Of course, not my palladium, platinum or titanium. <g> But good for my rate puts.
5. They seem to think that Al Greenjeans tightening is as likely as the Oakland A's winning The Super Bowl. <g>
6. With section titles like "The PC Quicksand Pit," one could get the impression these blokes are bearish on silicon.
7. Don't invite Larry and Donny to a party with Pfeiffer and Mason. Unless you are looking for excitement and all of your good china is in storage.
8. Nasty comments about IBM. I, as a long time IBM admirer, can hardly think about them. They seem to think the Beamer is not worth $235 a share. In addition to all the stuff they said about them in the New York Times and that nasty letter some geek wrote to Barron's, they piled on this issue with a discussion of software amortization. The deeper you dig into IBM's numbers, the worse they look.
9. Rather ungracious boasting to those who told them they were insane to predict 64 Mbit DRAM prices under $6 by the end of the summer. As the analysts were squawking that prices were stable in the $9.40-9.70 range, these guys made a prediction that was totally ridiculous. And if there was anything wrong with that prediction it is the fact that it was not ridiculous enough. <g>
10. They seem to think that only a miracle saves Micron from being owned by the debt holders. I believe in miracles, but I sure don't believe in Micron.
11. Intel meeting this quarter's estimate looks like a long shot to them.
12. They poke fun at our pal, Earlie.
13. The run up in Rambus did not impress them.
14. Lots of plugs this month. |
