Mike, although I do not currently own shares of ACTV...
Your optimism pleases me.
The problem I currently see is quite fundamental, and I am not sure
I fully understand its cause.
Have you noticed that AT&T or even Liberty Media never mention ACTV
in their press releases. Never a word. You, and a few other ACTV
cheerleaders always have to establish the link between what they
publish and what you think it means for ACTV.
This behavior leads me to think that AT&T/Liberty are not yet ready
to bet their empire on ACTV's technology.
I'm sure you noticed they also invested in a number of ACTV's
competitors. I think they will continue that way until the market
picks its winner. Then, they will go with that winner.
In a way, it makes sense: If you bet on every horse, you will be able
to claim you bet on the one that came out first.
On the other hand, it does not mean any good for ACTV. Even if
Liberty has invested a fair amount of money in the company, their
lack of endorsement is going to hurt ACTV's share price.
Institutional investors consequently hesitate. They have been buying,
and lately they have been selling.
Finally, there is still a risk. The market could escape ACTV.
An HAUP of interactive TV could pop out of a dark corner shaking a
deal with BRCM, RNWK, YHOO, etc. and offer a solution that would not
be covered by ACTV's patents.
You will agree that the field is still wide open.
Indeed, beyond Gemstar, no one company has a system currently in
production. Besides, most of the players who target the market are
not profitable at this stage. If expectations of huge future profits
fade, then these players will fall in a snap.
Brief, brief, Wall Street will want to see facts before to invest
further.
Secondly, retail investors will not support ACTV because their
business is not trendy enough (no portal, no auction, no webcast,
no on-line shopping mall, no brokerage services, etc.). I mean you
won't see as many retail investors in ACTV as in Yahoo!.
Consequently, I do not expect any price appreciation until ACTV's
technology is fully endorsed, or demonstrated through an actual
deployed and profitable network.
I might still be able to get back in at $12 a share.
Cheers,
__________
Champolion |
