Do you think this to be the next regional war into which NATO will intervene? >>
Greeting from North of Italy.
I DON'T BELEIVE NATO WILL SURVIVE THE KSOSVO WAR. IT HAS PROVED THAT
KNOW THAT THE SOVIET UNION IS DEAD, IT LACKS THE REASON TO EXIST.
US CAN'T BE SO BLIND NOT TO SEE THE WEAKNESS IN NATO. US CAN'T ACCEPT TO TAKE ALL THE RISKS, AND PAY ALL THE EXPENSES, AND THEN ALLOW ITS TROOPS TO BE CONDITIONED BY SOME RIFFRAFF LIBERAL GREEM PARTY, OR EX-COMMUNIST DEFENCE MINISTER FORM A MICKY MOUSE STATE SUCH AS LUXEMBURG!!
If the conduct of this war was being fought by the US and UK troops alone, Milosvoic would given-up at the end of the first week of boming! Every decision by General Clark has to be approved by all 19
defense ministers of NATO. Yesterday. the German defence minister said that " We should decide what targets to bomb in future and we should not let the military to decide on their own!! Out of 1000 planes taking part in the raids arround 95% are US and British and we have Germans decide how to conduct the raids. The same people who are responsible for breaking Jugoslavia into pieces!!
Then we must re-phrase the question, would US send troops to Azerbaijan?
Today, the answer is NO! Ex-Soviet Repulics, though independent, nominally, remain within the Russia's sphere of influence. Georgia can join the partnership for peace, and Azerbaijan, Moldava, and Ukraine can follow, but US will not push Soviets to the corner!
Lets look at a different senario! In the next ten years, Russia could fall apart. Kalmuks, Daghestani's, Tushin's, Tatars, Kara-chai's, Ossets, Abkhazians, Lesgians, Kabardians, Cherkasians, will rise agasint the Russian imperialism. Lets imagine 10 civil strife within the Russian Federation! How could they cope?
In early 1800's, Avars of Daghestan, gathered under the banner of Shemil, the Thrid Imam of Daghestan, fought the Tsars armies for 50 years. They laid down arms in 1854, but never surrendered.
Shamil is dead but his legacy still hangs over the Aòls of Daghestan.
The " Bolshoi Kavkaz" could explode in the next five years and what happened in Grozney will be insignificant comparing what lies ahead! From Lenkron in Talish lowlands Astrakan, From Darbent to Mineralnaya vodi, the region will explode, and Russians will not be able to hold it together. They could not manage Chechens, let alone fighting several major insurrections at one time! Cossaks of Don, Cossaks of Volga, and Cossaks of Terek could declare their own independence under their Attamans. Siberia break inot pieces, and Russia as we know today may cease to exist!
We may end-up with a Rusia that will extend form Perm to St. Petersburg, still a big country, but a shdow of its present size.
Such break-up will weaken Russian Federation to the extent that
Azeri's, Georgians, Ukrainians, could ask US to station troops
on their territory. At this point it will be matter of national security for the US to move in to protect Turkey, and the Near East!
This senerio now may not be realstic, but 10 years ago, break-up of the Soviet Union was also unimaginable.
What do you think?
Kind regards,
Yaacov |
