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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 225.89-1.1%Nov 19 3:59 PM EST
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To: Curlton Latts who wrote (45930)5/23/1999 9:51:00 AM
From: Carl R.  Read Replies (3) of 53903
 
Curlton, Zeev suggests waiting for a stock penetration of 41 before going long. I suggest waiting for certain key signs that typically signal a bottom. The best sign will be someone closing a fab, or getting out of the DRAM business. Another sign could be someone postponing or canceling spending plans. If AMAT spikes back up to 70, this is not a good sign for MU.

Both Zeev's sign and mine will probably happen together, by the way. The reason I'm not using an absolute stock price target like Zeev is that a move to the 20's is not out of the question in which case a new target will be needed. My original target for this down move was the low 40s, I belive, and then later I changed it to the 30's. Larry posted my modified forecast to the Micron Clubhouse:
techstocks.com

At this point we could be at the bottom, or it could go quite a bit lower. Since I have no notion of which way the stock will go from here, I haven't taken any position since closing my short at 39 and change.

I would add though that if you rely on the stock action to tell you that MU is really changing direction you need some volume. Another weak move to 41-42 on low volume is probably a shorting opportunity, but if the move is on good volume it is more likely to continue.

Carl

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