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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 674.96+0.9%Nov 25 4:00 PM EST
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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (14674)5/23/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: bobby beara  Read Replies (3) of 99985
 
>>>>My NYSE TRIN Chart shows that it is in the range of reversal which usually indicates a rally coming. Now this level has been surpassed during strong selloffs such as last summer<<<<

I have been looking at the oex as oversold and could of made a case for a bullish ascending triangle on may 13th and a new leg up, however on that day it appears IBM had a buying climax and the rest of the xci could not take out it's downtrendline from jan peak, then on the 14th the cpi numbers came out and we sliced below the bottom trendline on the oex triangle and have been consolidating.

Like last summer i believe we will sell-off in the face of oversold indicators, the rally of 30 dow stocks and the strength in small caps has masked this topping process and is providing enough confusion to fool most imo.

mid april we had climatic volume on the nyse and nasdaq, big volume at the end of long trends is usually a good reversal sign, it certainly was in the nasdaq last January.

I was look at FMAGX Magellan and can make a case for a fairly clean wave count with impulse tops in late nov, late jan, mid april.

Last year most groups were moving in fairly good unison into the April and July tops, this year groups are all over the map, this may be a sign of panic rotation of fund money to find the next performing group as they continue to lose to the spx and see redemptions by joe six pack who is opening a schwab account to buy ebay -g-

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