I really don't understand your argument, and that's mainly because your post contains none.
To start, I laid out an argument, that contained numbers and reasoning, about why one could make a coherent case for a much higher valuation on HAUP. I don't think it was hype, because I fairly present both sides of the argument and also explained under what conditions the earnings would explode. I also explained the scenario under which HAUP would eventually implode.
To contrast, your post contains zero arguments, zero facts, and zero reasoning. Let's show that, one assertion at a time.
Your first point - whose conclusion is implicit and not even explicitly stated - was that because every time a stock is hyped to have a potential deal with Yahoo! that therefore no such deals ever come to fruition or have a financial impact on the company. Neither of those conclusions follows validly from the premise. Luckily, you don't humor us with a weak argument, because like every part of your message, you only assert conclusions and never reason with facts and arguments to reach those conclusions.
I didn't base my hope on the BW article. Unlike some of you who have only caught interest in HAUP now, I have been in it and following it for years. I got my hunch from a press release that quotes Mark Cuban at Broadcast.com, posted to the HAUP board on Yahoo! about a month ago. I quoted it here:
Message 9698886
I really have no idea if HAUP will do a deal with Yahoo! at all. But it is an interesting speculation when Yahoo! (i.e., Cuban) is running around saying that they want to start broadcasting digital content via broadcast signals, and HAUP hints that they want to do a deal with a major Portal. We'll see what develops.
A deal with broadcast.com is a deal with Yahoo! If Cuban is as passionately committed to this as the press release makes him sound, it shouldn't be surprising to see this initiative getting heavy marketing dollars from Yahoo! How else is Mark going to achieve his goal of stealing every one of the customers for digital content? Are people going to learn about the initiative by telepathy?
If HAUP somehow got an exclusive distribution deal with Yahoo! out of this, so that they get a free ad on the Yahoo! digital media service, or alternately if they are the only viable digital TV tuner product around while this service starts to ramp, HAUP will get an earnings bonanza from that. I posted what I thought would be reasonable numbers given particular assumptions about penetration and pricing.
How about responding to those numbers and micro assumptions instead of shooting from the gut instead of engaging in pure argument ad hominem by saying $200 is not playing with a full deck. First, I didn't say $200 was a price target for today. I said within one year, based on the kind of deal I outlined and real sales taking place based on that deal. As with all parts of your post, you make no argument.
Regarding Yahoo! with larger card companies: that would certainly be damaging, yes, but again you don't provide any reasoning to get to your conclusion of a $4 price. It isn't necessarily a fatal thing if HAUP has competition in this deal, or gets locked out, since they have the first digital TV tuner product, and an established consumer distribution channel for it through all of the major computer stores. As long as the market stays under 5% penetration, I don't think major card companies will attempt to steal market share by selling at cost. The market wouldn't be large enough to justify it. More likely they will just have offerings and everyone will enjoy their profits.
Regarding your $4 target, that would be nonsense based just on their analog tuner business, which is growing at 40+% per year. They are fairly valued at $15-to-$25 based just on that business, with zero contribution from anything new.
Regarding my ownership: I really don't give a fiddler's yip whether you believe it or not. But as God is my witness it is the truth. I stated this only because I wanted my self-interest to be clearly stated and up front. If you visit the HAUP board on Yahoo! you will clearly see I have been posting there for years, not days, and there are public messages where I state I bought at 3 back when they were trading at 8, and messages that verify I picked up more at 9-10 when they were busy falling with every other low cap last Fall (they eventually got to $5, and I still kick myself for not buying more there). Yes, I made a lot of money on Friday, and yes I never for one moment thought about selling those shares. Yes, HAUP could easily retrace back to 13. But IF they announce the right kind of deal next week, I have a coherent theory about why this is a rocket ship, and I am going to exhibit the patience required to see the experiment through to its finish. If you have a good idea with a potential 10-to-1 payback, I've learned to see it through. I will not change my convictions because of the random behavior of people who hear words on CNBC. In the final analysis, the only thing that matters is does HAUP deliver real earnings, and if it does then the market will reward that. |
