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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: James Clarke who wrote (7289)5/23/1999 1:05:00 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) of 78519
 
Jim, you were willing to by CYM at a cyclical low. Would you be willing to do same with Homestake Mining (HM). I am considering it.

I thought and think CYM is a cigarbutt. But I also thought they were at a very low price in both the stock and business cycle - especially the stock cycle. So I bought- having no positive outlook for the industry and no idea of what or when the perception of CYM might change to cause the stock price to rise.

Now seems like HM is similar. Mining co. with a discredited metal (England unloading lots of her hoard). But at some point the gold market will absorb, and at some point there might be demand increases for gold. The stock of HM is at at least a 10-year low. Again, I do not understand or like the business, I don't see when or how HM or its peers will recover, and it certainly looks like HM stock will not recover (can drop much more)... but.... historically - over the past 10 years or more... this stock has traded above 10 (up from 8 now). So I am thinking, again like CYM, they are not going out of business (just a guess), they have assets, I don't see any insider selling....and sometime in the next 2 years HM will be 50% higher (at 12) than today.

Do you, or anyone else have a comment?
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