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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)

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To: Rich Wolf who wrote (11307)5/23/1999 1:59:00 PM
From: William Epstein  Read Replies (2) of 27311
 
Rich Wolf;

A dose of reality? Regardless, of the advanced technology the most important part of the company is the people who run it. I have noticed that the venerable Al Shugart, late of Seagate Tech. is a director. The fact the manufacturing plant is located in Northern Ireland is no accident. That is Al's influence working. SEG had a manufacturing plant in Northern Ireland which they closed last year. Also, the one of the major reasons he was fired as CEO, after founding the company is the he was never too concerned about two very important things. First, was time to market with product. Something current management has severely criticized and partly corrected. Second, he was never too concerned about stockholder value. Something SEG is also trying to correct in a number of ways. In his last year, 1998, he was also more concerned with research than with making a profit. Something else they have corrected. You can't do that for too long with a 6 billion company. The investment bankers won't tolerate it. So he was forced out.

While Al is an acknowledged visionary and succeeded with SEG he has the all earmarks of an entrepreneur. VLNC is certainly, one of them. So, when we speculate let us please keep Shugart and company in mind. I have nothing against Al but as a long term investor in SEG I paid the price. I have been a stockholder of VLNC only a short while but researching the company is important in understanding its future prospects. With regard to POs again. If a PO were announced tomorrow I doubt the company would or could show positive cash flow in much less than 2 quarters. Having been a entrepreneur/ CEO myself, for many years, experience tells me that is takes about 6 months to get that pipeline going and we're not talking about profitability, just positive cash flow.

With regard to negative cash flow, negative cash positions, working capital, etc.. Several of the directors are very wealthy men with an entrepreneural bent. Any one of them could sustain the company by himself, if inclined. They all have individual lines of credit so, I don't worry whether they will stay in business or not, so long as, they remain committed to making it a success.
PHOTOMAN
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