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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (2114)	5/23/1999 3:15:00 PM
From: Tlac	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Mike, Run rate's definition as I understand it is four times the most recent quarterly earnings. Using the pro forma earnings of $1.20, that would make the run rate $4.80. Not trying to be nit picky, but want to make sure we're on the same page... Sorry! I was thinking per quarter, pre split when I wrote the post (but did use the correct value in my calculation). Re... "and even assuming an abruptly attenuated revenue growth rate to 35%/yr... and assuming a PEG ratio expansion from the current .77 to only one of 1.91 (in five years), one concludes that the share price is likely to reach at least $2.15 within two years." ...the table below better conveys those assumptions and results: Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Rev Gr 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% Rev run m $3.73 $5.03 $6.80 $9.18 $12.39 $16.72 EPS Gr 55% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% PEG 0.77 0.99 1.22 1.45 1.68 1.91 EPS run $2.40 $3.72 $5.02 $6.78 $9.15 $12.36 Net Mar 9.3% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% P/E 42 35 43 51 59 67 Pr/Shr $101 $129 $215 $345 $539 $826 Pr/Sls 3.9 3.7 4.6 5.4 6.3 7.1 Shrs m 145 145 145 145 145 145 Cap m 14.61 18.72 31.09 49.83 77.88 119.45 I'm sure you don't think the share price will be $2.15 Right again!! My hope is that the actual numbers will look more like this... Yr 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Rev Gr 45% 45% 35% 35% 35% 35% Rev run m $3.73M $5.41 $7.84 $10.59 $14.29 $19.29 EPS GR 55% 50% 45% 40% 40% 40% PEG 0.77 1.01 1.26 1.51 1.75 2.00 EPS run $2.40 $3.72 $5.58 $8.09 $11.33 $15.86 Net Mar 9.3% 9.9% 10.3% 11.1% 11.5% 11.9% P/E 42 51 57 60 70 80 Pr/Sr $101 $188 $316 $487 $794 $1,269 Pr/Sls 3.9 5.0 5.8 6.7 8.0 9.5 Shrs m 145 145 145 145 145 145 Cap m 14.61 27.22 45.72 70.49 114.87 183.47 I was experimenting with NZ sherry when working up this spreadsheet, so more scrutiny is welcome.;) Kelly

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