Blake:
I don't think we can argue too many of your point:
Losing position? Well, yeah.
Bottom fishing: yes, but some of us like to think of it as "value."
As far as your other points go, they're all true. However, Novell
does have THE superior product as far as networking goes, book value
is not necessarily any big deal since the low stock price also drags
down the "book," the stock has a reputation for being a dog: well, I
think the only thing we can say about that is that this stock IS a
dog, reputation or not, and lastly: institutions have been burned:
yes, but so has the small investor.
Poor management or mismanagement over the last year or two is right!
We all hope that's going to change soon.
The net hasn't been growing and that's not so good but, on the other
hand, the "emplacements" of the product lines have been growing and
the customers seem to be more satisfied with Novell's overall networking solutions than they seem to be with "some others." In the
long run, that should portend well for Novell. Also, note that the
cash position, the absence of debt, and the valuable portfolio of
Novell's assets (property, equity stakes, R&D sites) all should add
up to a low-risk investment at these prices.
I started buying at 13 and doubled up at 11 but I won't buy any more
Novell until I see definite signs that this company's management is
improving and seems to have a handle on the situation. However, if
the stock does drop back to 8-something, I think that'll be a good
buying opportunity since I really can't see a lot of downside from
there.
However, Novell has surprised us negatively so many times before that
I'd even take my own advice with a grain of salt. I'd say that for
the short-term, there are better opportunities.
Take a look at USSurgical (NYSE==USS) as it took what I think is an
undeserved hit today (down 4) on currency issues. That's a stock that
I think will be over 100 in a couple of years and if brilliant management is what you want, you'll find better hardly anywhere else. |
