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Non-Tech : James Cramer

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To: Stocker who wrote (576)	5/23/1999 11:56:00 PM
From: Adam Weiner	of 766

>> Thing is that Barron's, WSJ etc. had little competition a few >> years ago, now they face potentially much more - not much to be >> gained when you're already king of the hill WSJ certainly had a running start from their established subscription base. In that respect, TSC subscription growth has been impressive. But I'm skeptical of their future growth. >> I'm sure a lot of writers are looking at the amount of new staff >> millionaires created and saying to themselves "hey, why can't that >> be me!!" True, and everybody in the country feeling this same way - that is what's creating the incredible excesses in the market today - the enormous prosperity expectations from everyone. I noticed that the rate of new writers being added to the TSC staff accelerated significantly as it approached IPO time. I think it will be nearly impossible for WSJ to get/retain talent unless they spin off their net operations and give the talent a chunk of the shares. >> Barron's and the like will also have to look at offering up to the >> minute or hour coverage similar to what's available on TSC - that's >> what makes them appealing right now. I agree; that's why I think TSC will not survive the next major bear market. TSC is really the product of an incredible bull market - the rate of participation in the markets by the average Joe is staggering. When people lose 30%-50% of their money, and the market takes a couple years to recover, rather than just a week, the demand for real-time news and commentary for the individual investor will fall off a cliff. WSJ has always been primarily targeted to institutions/businesses, so it's subscription base is safe. The same can't be said for TSC.

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