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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook?

ERIC 9.605

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12:59 PM EST

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To: w molloy who wrote (3249)	5/24/1999 4:57:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 5390

Sure, China is on the poor end of the economic scale, but that has been changing rapidly. You ask who can afford 'fripperies like cellphones'. Quite a lot of people in China already own them. The rate of growth is nothing short of spectacular. Unfortunately, it is nearly all in GSM at the moment. Cellphones are no longer frippery. Korea had one of the big economic crunches of the 20th century and the sales of the cellphone 'frippery' shot up. Airline travel dropped spectacularly. It is not in dispute in the slightest that cdmaOne is far more cost effective than GSM for providing cellphone service. The delay in replacing GSM arises from the sunk value of GSM. People won't just remove a GSM system unless the economic advantage justifies it. Growth rates might cause such a change, or technology developments such as 3G. So GSM has got a while to go before it is ditched. In Europe, GSM replacement will probably happen with 3G which is a technology development which everyone will want. It will not be available on GSM. Therefore, GSM is toast. Maybe IS95 will always be smaller than GSM, but cdma2000 will not be smaller [including the W-CDMA variant of cdma2000]. Maurice

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