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Biotech / Medical : Neurobiological Tech (NTII)
NTII 0.00010000.0%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: Biomaven who wrote (569)5/24/1999 8:41:00 AM
From: NeuroInvestment  Read Replies (1) of 1494
 
1) My model--based on conversations with the company--has a 10% royalty to Merz from marketing partner(plus or minus 2%) This will be an expensive drug to promote/detail, with lots of prescribers, and there is no 'buzz' in the marketplace for it. It will have to be built up 'from scratch.' 2) In theory the AD market has billion-dollar potential, but with galantamine (Shire/Janssen's Reminyl) and rivastigmine (Novartis' Exelon)--both cholinesterase inhibitors claiming to have advantages over Aricept launching before Memantine, the market will be more fragmented. Memantine may well be the first non cholinesterase-inhibitor to make it, which will be a vital point of differentiation, but the task is made more difficult. It is sold in Germany for Parkinsons and AD, since Merz is private, I do not know sales figures (and since Euro-sales are not always good indicators of US potential, I havent really looked). The scale and clout of the marketing partner will be a key here--will it be big enough to go head to head with Pfizer, Novartis, and Janssen?... but at present, my model postulates only a modest penetration of the AD market.
NeuroInvestment (www.neuroinvestment.com)
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