I think that the discussion of the contest here is in some ways useful. There's certainly the risk that the minutiae of how the contest oughta work will overwhelm the serious discussion and exchange of ideas here, however I think that the contest has so far stimulated some thoughtful examination of things Buffett. I don't know if the contest itself would be a worthwhile expenditure of effort for either the participants or Fred (my guess is that it wouldn't), but we wouldn't really know until (if) we try. If the contest does get off the ground, Michael Burry is probably right about moving it off to a thread of its own.
With respect to the useful discussion that this contest has provoked,
Buffett's buy-and-hold philosophy is his third incarnation, which comes of necessity due to the size requirement on his investments.
What was incarnation #1 or #2? One of them was flipping small caps (see below), what was the other?
And his absolute best years - the ten years of his partnership- were not of the buy-and-hold type. He was very successful flipping small caps for rather quick gains when he was able.
Exactly this sort of thing seems to be going on over the the Value Investing thread. Are we in the midst of a Golden Age of sorts, perhaps without realizing it? Or are these sorts of opportunities usually available to the diligent value investor?
Could it be that by investing as Buffett does now, despite our tiny size, we are giving up the inherent advantage of being an individual, small investor?
I think this sentence alone is worth all of the effort and "distraction" that we've spent on the contest thing. Thanks.
- Daniel |
