Jeff, You are correct in noting QDEL's business to date has been very seasonal, due largely to their reliance on Strep A tests. This Quarter (4th qtr of fy 97, from 1-1-97--3-31-97) should be quite good in my estimation and should be at least as good as the 3rd quarter in terms of revenue. The net may be down a bit because of the approx $200,000 outlay for free HP samples for the P+G salesman. Increased sales could, however, make up for this add'l costs.
Despite what you read from a few unnamed others on this thread, neither I nor anyone else that knows anything about this company expects them to make $0.08 during the 1st quarter of fy 98, ending 6-30-97. You are correct that it would take a rapid acceleration in HP sales to do so. I don't expect that to happen in the first quarter, but it should pick up strongly as the year goes on. You may recall that the company said during its last conference call that they do not expect to see the effects of the P+G deal until at least 4-1-97. This is a big deal and even though P+G has a 300+ salesforce, they have approx. 43,000 (!!!) Drs. offices, clinics, etc. to visit. That will take a while, since the program just began on 2-1-97. I think the important thing to analyze is the 1st quarter fy 98 results vs. 1st quarter fy 97 results when they made only about 1 cent per share. I think they will come in at about 4 to 5 cents for the 1st quarter in fy 98, consistent with their 400% + increase when comparing 3rd qtr fy 96 (2 cents) vs 3rd quarter fy 97 (8 cents). It will take some time to even out the seasonality of their business and quite frankly it may never happen since the next big test on the horizon is the influenza test, another seasonal product. I hate to sound like a democrat, but "so what?" I'll be perfectly happy with 2 good quarters every year and 2 great quarters to end the fiscal year. The point is they have good products w/ an expanding distribution network and are beginning to make some decent money-this should accelerate as the years go by, altho it may not be a straight line up in each successive quarter. Compare apples to apples, oranges to oranges, year to year, and comparable quarter to comparable quarter to get the true picture of their business.
I don't agree that "we might already be hearing about" increased HP sales if it were happening. You may not know it but QDEL doesn't have a full time Investor Relations Director at this moment. The job is being covered by Mr Steven Burke, who also happens to be the CFO. I'm sure he has better things to do than create press releases about "news" which really is nothing more than "we are very busy here sending out tests" I don't mean to be flip, but QDEL was never a company that "hyped" itself much through press releases, even when they had a full time IR Director. The "news" is the quarterly and year end results which should be out in late April, 1997. Time will tell.
P.S. the warrants are a steal right now at 2 dollars or under.
BOB |
