SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Gold/Mining/Energy : Lundin Oil (LOILY, LOILB Sweden)
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Tomas who wrote (1101)5/24/1999 11:46:00 AM
From: Tomas  Read Replies (1) of 2742
 
RE: Morgan Stanley. My Comments:
Bringing the Thar Jath discovery on stream in 2004, isn't that a very pessimistic assumption? Lundin said a couple of days ago "We expect production to commence during Q3 year 2001". OK, make that 2002, just like the En Naga discovery in Libya, 2 1/2 - 3 years from first discovery to first production is a very realistic assumption.

"As a result of the discovery we are increasing our asset value estimate to SKr41 (US$4 7/8) per share from SKr21 (US$2 1/2) per share".

What? Sudan is worth as much as all the other assets together?!? Wow! Malaysia and The North Sea are already in production, Libya will come on stream during the 2nd half of next year. Even the PNG gas will probably come on stream well before 2004. Proven and probable reserves are 250-275 MMBOE (excluding PNG and Sudan). And Sudan = 50% of total asset value? Hmm.

Conclusion: Morgan Stanley should take a closer look at the value of the other assets, $2 1/2 must be a very old figure. We can probably look forward to a new asset value estimate, as well as increased earnings and cash flow estimates, in the not too distant future.

Back in January last year, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter wrote:
"At our target price (SKr 50), the shares would stand on a 79% premium to our estimated core asset value of SKr 28 per share. That is in line with it's peer group of companies".

NOTE that this core asset value does NOT include last year's discovery in Libya!
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News