I've had a chance to lurk here, this AM waiting for the moving van to arrive, Bill, so I hope bear cub doesn't mind my butting in here with my 2c and to say goodbye to one of SI's finest gentlemen.
there is no doubt in my mind, Bill, that someone will figure out a way to make an "equity buck" in y2ka. i've to have given some thought to that aspect. and frankly, i believe all of the stocks, from blue chips to 'net'sle's chocolate chips will take a massive, MASSIVE, M-A-S-S-I-V-E hit.
obviously, since chaos will be universal, it will be painfully obvious to all shareholders which companies lied. equities will tumble, and even if i owned the puts who would pay up?
whatever cash position ANY company has now, will be wiped out in a blink.
Any future cash FLOW will be dependent upon their ability to borrow money from the banking system which is also going to be in disarray to put it mildly. too big to fail will become a joke.
Every cent of borrowed cash flow will go to payroll for remediation and replacement work, and to transportation costs. all these are line items which don't flip a single penny to the bottom line.
if a penny would ever land ON the bottom line, it will end up LINING some pocket of some damned attorney. there will be lawsuits. why do i know this? if anyone can make a buck in hard times it is those with legal pads,
pencils,
a sharpened pocket knife for keeping a point sharp,
and a dustly library full of codified archane language
to get around any y2k laws currently being proposed and certain to become law of the land POST 1/1/00.
therefore,
there will be negative earnings for longer than anyone can now possibly imagine let alone manage. said negative earnings will contribute to plummeting stock valuations.
as/if/when profit opportunities arise, it will be in local entrepreneurial fundings. funding skillsets such as those possessed by good judges of character and craftspersonship. those who have cash and the ability to assess risk, assess the value of a handshake and a clear eye, sobriety, and reputation for hardwork, PLUS know how to shoe a horse or a mule or repair bicycles. they will be in demand but are notoriously pooooooooooooooooorly paid and lousy money managers.
funeral homes won't get business. who is going to make the caskets and vaults and shiny satin linings? there will not be a supply of formaldehyde to process corpses and no electricity to either cremate or preserve the deceased until all the prayers and flowers have been sought and bought.
might wish to investigate storing up lime. that is used to toss in on the dead in the both mass and individual graves. and don't forget shovels, and spare handles.
farriers, furriers, cobblers will be in great demand. even even hand-mending skilled labor, sewers, quilters, dressmakers, tailors. ditto barbers and those with ability to cut women's hair. why not warehouse what they will need: soap, shampoo, brushes, combs. why not investigate alternative sterilizing solutions, like old fashioned wood-alcohol?
cheap leasing of warehouses for storing the flood of both unsold and used consumer goods will probably be a good idea, but I don't want to be the one to pay the security detail to watch all that stuff, nor the labor to create the 'bucket brigade' of getting that flood of goods from point a to point b with rationed gasoline, which is only a 4 day supply, and that's for the military, of course.
ownership of spaces suitable for open air markets and leasing to sellers will be a source of cashflow, both reportable and otherwise most likely.
gardening will become big again.
conveyances to haul drinking water will become big.
canning supplies and canning equipment will become big again.
one only needs food,
water,
heat source
time
and daylight preferrably to do that.
all those items are y2k compliant.
my point is this:
there will be time to invest in equities again, and to BUY CHEAP!
in fact, if the government decides to put in a 'market moratorium' under its various eo's and pdd's, it will only postpone the recovery phase, not the private massive sell-off ahead. those with
big names, like ATT certificates in their possession will be the ones who come out with any choices during such anticipated governmental intervention/interference.
the equity bottom feeders/daytraders/momo boyz will be the first to run out of cash. they will be the loudest and the most certain this is the place to buy xyz stock because "it can't possibly go lower"
when they give up because it not only can but DOES go lower and they bail out will be the time for the patient who have figured out a way
to "not just survive, but thrive" (<---my family's motto) will have the cash and opportunity to step in to who ever is re-emerging.
frankly, i can wait with the best of them. preparing for these last 9 months has taught me alot about myself and my fellow humans. had someone here just last night helping us pack for our move who couldn't
believe the preparations we have made. and they have only paid lip service to y2k, such as trying to decide which bond fund to move their equity positions into, just in case.
the hardness of my heart to those who have had the opportunity to work so closely with us as to be trusted to help us pack for our move is painful personally to me. but it is just a mere smidgin of a whiff of a foretaste of the personal stamina and gumption that is going to be required of those of us that not only get it but got it and did something about it.
the mere contemplation of the wailing and gnashing of teeth of us who have lived far higher on the hog than the LDC inhabitants is enough to make me wish to turn my head in shame for having participated in such lavishness as well.
the first shall be last and the last first. i've heard that since childhood. now i have an idea of how that is going to come to be because i just couldn't wrap my mind around that old truth/proverb/utterance by one of the Greatest Teachers of them all.
since the "have nots and still survived" will become our teachers.
i've been in 'learning to not just survive but thrive mode' for 9 months now. the paradigm shift hasn't been easy, but it has become not just "worth it," but worthy of my all out efforts. blessings on you, Bill, as you wrestle your own lions/tigers and bears into compliance and submission.
Don't just survive, plan NOW to thrive. God Bless.
O/49r (my final post for a very very VERY long time) |
