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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.25

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Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Duker who wrote (30556)	5/24/1999 3:22:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) of 70976

>>Double digit revenue growth could be achieved by rising ASPs (average selling prices) with zero growth in unit volume. Remember that the massive declines in chip industry revenue the last few years occurred as unit volumes hit record highs. The likelihood of zero unit growth is ??? Wouldn't this require flat/flattish DRAM unit output ??? ... I am envisioning a DRAM Cartel, working together to solidify their oligopoly ... hmmm ... seems pretty unlikely ...<< Yes, that is unlikely. The forecasts I've seen expect unit growth and rising ASPs to make roughly equal contributions to revenue gains. My point was that not only does double digit revenue growth not require big capacity purchases, it may actually be more likely to occur without them. Regarding TSMC, they have not issued a press release regarding plans for a 300mm fab. I'm playing phone tag with them regarding the SBN story, but don't have any information at this time. Katherine

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