Biogen Message Board - Msg: 9726362

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Biotech / Medical : Biogen

BIIB 156.82

+2.2%

Nov 6 3:59 PM EST

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To: Harold Engstrom who wrote (980)	5/24/1999 3:51:00 PM
From: William Partmann	Read Replies (2) of 1686

>>Do you understand what the analyst is trying to say?<< Harold the following is my interpretation, whether it is right or wrong, who knows? The total U.S. market sales potential for drugs treating psoriasis is 2 billion dollars. This leads one to conclude that the world market potential is much larger than two billion (3 billion???). Of the world opportunity, which I have guesstimate to be 3 billion dollars, Biogen will capture 500 million or 1/6 of the total. The questions are: 1. Is ML being overly aggressive in including the projected earnings of a drug before the end of phase II and 2. Is ML compensating for their aggressiveness by being conservative on the potential market share it expects Bgen to take?

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