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Technology Stocks : CYRIX / NSM
NSM 18.270.0%Jul 31 5:00 PM EST
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To: robert scheb who wrote (32529)5/24/1999 4:37:00 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (1) of 33344
 
Robert and thread,

Re: Carver Mead,

Yes he's a prolific professor and has done very well.

However very few of his ideas have turned into practical money making businesses.

Synaptics as a case in point was going to revolutionize the world of neural networks.

It has been stumbling and bumbling along for many years.

With regards to Foveonics, I remain very skeptical.

I doubt that the technology will be cost effective.
It also seems to have a very niche market.
In this kind of very high end enthusiast market - unless the technology exceeds the quality of the best lenses - the enthusiasts will ignore it.
Even if the product is a success the market penetration will be slow IMHO.

With regards to NSM as being the right foundry partner I remain even more skeptical.

NSM is a crappy wafer manufacturer by any stretch of the imagination.
NSM is dumping its latest wafer fab (or so they hope) and has reassigned the fab development VP they had hired from LSI.

And anybody basing their investment descisions on this foveonics stuff is insane. The value inherent in NSM is its Analog market which is doing quite well. Prior to their Cyrix foray the stock was in the 30's and may well hit it again if they can indeed recover $400-500M from the Cyrix/Fab sale.

Unfortunately if they don't find a buyer they will be taking a massive write-off at year end for shutting down the fab and the cyrix design operation.

I don't believe that they can utilize more than 10% of the fab currently once the Cyrix MII wafer starts finish.

This gives a substantial down side risk IMHO.

Regards,

Kash
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