Here's more on the Dataquest prediction of DRAM shortage....
(http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB19990524S0027)
Technology News
Dataquest Predicts Year 2000 DRAM Shortage
05/24/99, 6:03 p.m. ET) EDTN
A DRAM shortage at the end of 2000
will drive worldwide semiconductor
sales upward by 21.6 percent in 2001,
according toa forecast by Dataquest,
in San Jose, Calif.
By 2001, global chip sales are estimated to
reach $218 billion compared to $153 billion in
1999, and $179 million in 2000, according to
the report.
"A key assumption to the forecast is a DRAM
shortage starting in late 2000, which will
cause DRAM revenue to peak in 2001," said
Ron Bohn, director of research for
Dataquest's worldwide semiconductor group.
"After that, the DRAM cycle of oversupply
will repeat itself."
As a result, worldwide semiconductor revenue
growth will decelerate. And in 2002 and 2003,
the market will grow by 5.9 percent and 5.6
percent, respectively.
Double-digit growth through 2001 will be
propelled by PCs, consumer electronics, and
communications equipment, which account
for nearly two-thirds of total chip sales,
according to Joe Grenier, vice president of
Dataquest's semiconductor device programs.
"Of the top 20 high-growth semiconductor
applications, nine are communication
applications, six are consumer applications,
and four are PC workstation applications,"
Grenier said, in a prepared statement.
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Should be bullish for LSI in the next two years through 2001.
"After that, the DRAM cycle of oversupply will repeat itself."
EKS |
