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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook?
ERIC 9.605+0.7%12:59 PM EST
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To: w molloy who wrote (3249)5/24/1999 8:38:00 PM
From: DaveMG  Read Replies (1) of 5390
 
Seems to me the question investors have to answer is not which system will grab the Lions share but which will grow faster and who will benefit most from that growth?

GSM has LOTS of momentum in the real world. There were approx 200 mil digital subs DEC98,130 mil are GSM and the rest split CDMA/TDMA. There is talk of 200mil GSM subs by Jan 2000, and 50 mil CDMA. Which system is growing faster? That's the easy part.

Now what happens next, between the end of this year and 2003 for example? GSM is less economical than CDMA, this is an undisputed fact. One has to assume that sooner or later this fact HAS to become a issue, less so in Europe, where it is already too late, than in CHINA and other parts of the world ,where it's still very early.The only hope for GSM in CHina is political cronyism. CDMA has essentially taken the Americas but is barely built out. Japan will be entirely CDMA, Korea too.

The 3G WCDMA game has stalled CDMAone growth but we'll see that the game can't go on forever. QCOM is moving ahead, WCDMA can't move without a Q blessing!

The argument Tero makes about QCOM being a small fish amongst much bigger fish in a very large pond is the most serious. It's entirely possible that the BIG Three will take all but the royalty revenue. All the rest is just noise. CDMA will win.

Dave
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