AJ, the danger of being short HAUP with abandon is twofold. When it was "unknown" in the $8 to $12 area, it was a pure value play, it was priced at a PE well under its actual growth rate (taking this years earning at $.6/share, which is the current quarterly earning rate), had a PSR well under 1 range (taking $60 MM annual sales which is the current sales rate). Now that some 30 plus MM shares have trade in it in two days, it appears on many radar screens, and even at $30/share it is selling below standards such as the S&P based on its current superior growth (relative to the S&P) and its sales volume.
What you might end up with is another ASND or Prestek situation were despite the less than stellar fundamental, the small float caused a massive move. Here you may have to go above $50/share before you get to prices that are "la-la" land in respect to their actual performance (ya their book value is puny), and in respect to speculations about their ability or inability to capitalize on the net, well you know what kind of crazy valuations the market can put on that.
Disclosure: I am flat, and left a bunch on the table when my target of about $18/share was suddenly exceeded before I could even pick up the phone, got out at $25.25, and until it goes back to what I consider value valuations, I'll probably will not look back.
Zeev |
