t2K - I have no more of a crystal ball than the next guy, but purely technically we should be nearing a short-term end to the sell-off. The McClellan oscillator is approaching oversold levels for several indices (and some of them should bounce off their 50 DMAs). I was expecting a rally today or tomorrow, definitely one this week. I'm a little non-plussed by today's market action. Originally, I also thought Friday would be negative going into the long weekend, but now I'm not so sure, simply because we sold off so strongly today toward the end. The volume in the market is still not at exhaustion-capitulation levels, and I thought the odds of a rally today were better than 70%.
I honestly would not write off the nets. Remember, that many of them sold off better than 50% last year and rallied sharply. Of course, since they've appreciated by sometimes 1000s of % points, but have only sold off in the 30-45% range for the majors.
I cannot help being bullish on MSFT - soon the p/e will drop below 60. With earnings coming up, I am NOT selling my long-term MSFT holdings, come hell or high-water. The various trials are definitely a negative (IMHO) for the shareprice, but longer-term I'm not worried. Short-term, the support at 74 should hold - as a trader, I'd buy there (unless, say, Naz is down by 100 points on the day or there is some devastating news about the DOJ case etc.).
Some bargains are coming up - and I'll be cautiously picking up stuff right about now (I have my eye on PFE and a few other things, even high p/e QCOM is looking strong here).
Good luck.
Morgan
PS On most net stocks I use 900 share blocks (except AOL which can absorb 1-2K blocks). The tier limit you refer to is frequently academic even for SOES, because for many inet stocks the thieves go to "manual mode" when it suits them, and so they can d*ck with your order to their hearts content. |
