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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 40.56+10.2%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST
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To: Scumbria who wrote (81562)5/25/1999 7:37:00 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (1) of 186894
 
Scumbria,

Re: "Are you taking into consideration Intel's plummeting ASP's for desktop processors? What will K7 do to aggravate the situation?"

The best estimates for K7 production have been 1M units in Q4.

This will be no big problem to Intel IMHO.

The meat of the volumes will be PIII 500-600's and these ASPs will be well over the historical $230 average. In fact they will be well over $300 average.

We know Xeons volumes are increasing.

And the key will be celery.

As Cyrix will no longer be a player there is no need for either Intel or AMD to slash prices down to $50 for the lowest processor.

In fact the k6-2 will likely be largely phased out in Q4.

The best scenario for AMD in Q4 would be 1M K7's, and 2.5M KIII and maybe 2-3M K6-2's.

Remember in Q4 last year all AMD had was largely low speed product together with Cyrix dumping another 3M pcs of low end product.
I see no need for Intel to dump loads of low speed Celerons frankly.

I expect a good Q4 for Intel and a great quarter for AMD If they deliver the K7 in good volumes. Even if K7 yields suck it still should be a reasonable quarter for AMD.

Remember that 400 Mhz speed grades will be super low end machines and neither rise or idti is shipping any 400Mhz speeds yet. So there should be less competition in Q4 in 99 than in 98.

Regards,

Kash
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