Sepracor-Looks very promising Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: David Howe who wrote (2995)	5/25/1999 10:24:00 PM
From: Bob Swift	Read Replies (1) of 10280

David, Have you ever consider a WORST case scenario on SEPR earning and price of stock ? I mean WORST case. Seems to me your model assumes a lot. (1) You assume that the ICE will work out better than the parental drug when you assign a earning value to the ICE but we don't know that. (2) Another assumption is that if it is better, the consumer will pay up and SEPR can successfully market them. Even in this case, the expenditure may be much more than you have allowed for so far. By worst case scenario, I mean a very hard nosed look at each of the drugs and give an estimate(a number) for the probability of it works better base on what is currently known and another probability on it s being successfully launched. For example,what if we assume DCL is not that much better than Claritin.(Same goes for Prozac). In this case of worst scenario,the ICE is not much better, but SGP still try to push it. How much earning do we have in the next few years when the SGP patent still prevents competition. and there after when generic enters the market and SGP competes on price ? If we apply that logic, may be we can assign a "bottom" value for SEPR.

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