July 98
James: The following is excerpt from a previous post of mine on another thread Thursday after the bell:
"My investment indicators have been signaling a move down for the overall market. I've been in cash for a few days. This market is very heavy. The following is based on my own short/medium term investment (not intra day) TA indicators: (Oscillators based on daily closing prices, moving averages, volume interpretations and charting!)
#reply-5304926
During this decline, many posters on SI that “now” profess to have called the down turn, actually tried to bottom pick it several times on the way down. I will not mention any names as that is not my style.
In addition, I identified every bearish flag/pennant consolidation during the decline and called many of the resolution dates of those formations with in one or two days. I decided not to link all of those. During that correction I stuck with my expectation of further downside activity until my end of day technicals on Oct 9, 1998 changed my mine.
Oct 98
I believe the Market may have begun a rally or at least started a sideways period. This pause in the downturn started at the reverse off the intra day lows on Thursday 10/8. Duration and or price point I do not predict.
#reply-5983489
Nov 98
I have done a little more fine tuning and I think the Bull Flag may resolve as soon as Mon/Tues, which is right in line with your expectations. And as you pointed out the flag could break against the norm...as we both know...chart formations are not 100%. Heck, what TA is...<g>
#reply-6401818
My GUT FEEL is that the Market (as measured by the DJI) will rally finding resistance at the 9100 area. And, if penetrated will find final resistance in the 9200 area. (Old Bull Support Trend Line derived from Theoretical Daily Semi-Log Chart) Then the Market will begin a more aggressive pullback. The depth of that pullback may determine if this was a Bear Rally or NOT.
#reply-6424243
Over all the Market is at another decision point. I believe it will be to pullback from this rally soon. Your expectations for Mon/Tues fit in with forward looking my technicals. But, I would not be surprised to see it start tomorrow.
The depth of this pullback may well define the current Market action as Bear or Bull.
#reply-6490925
January 25, 99
Bobby and All: ....Well we need to switch the focus from the DJI (Dow Industrials Actual Data) last rising wedge which was bearish and begin to focus on the latest formation: A falling wedge in a uptrend, which is bullish. The last bearish flag is contained with in this larger formation. Most often the larger formation rules.
To view this formation look at the DJI (Dow Industrials Actual Data) 60-Minute Interval Semi-Log Chart. To view the upper descending trend line, connect the high of 1/11 @ 15:35 EST to the high of 1/23 @ 11:33 EST and extend to the right. To view the lower descending trend line, connect the low of 1/14 @ 14:30 EST to the low of 1/25 @ 9:30 EST and extend. Keep an eye on these trend lines. A significant move above the upper descending trend line would be the norm and would portend a continuation of the rally off the Oct 8 low. Keep in mind that the upper trend line, has room to adjust up slightly. A significant move below the lower descending trend line would be a negating break and would portend a trend reversal from the Oct 8 rally.
(I accidentally deleted the link to this one.)
March 98
Greg Jung: Without going into a lot of detail, because it is late and I am going to turn in...
As the big caps correct, those that shouldered the rise of the Indexes as of late, I expect the money that will come out of those big caps will go into previously out of favor big caps, medium and small cap stocks with more attractive valuations and new stories.
The rise in these stocks will offset some of the decline of the above mentioned big caps as they correct dampening the numeric fall of the Indexes.
As this capital rotation occurs it will bring some equilibrium back into the Market. This will set the stage for another rally, after the Indexes find their bottoms, which I suspect will be above the Oct 08 lows.
In addition, there may well be a bounce before the Market continues the correction.
#reply-8487914
April to Date
I will not link or quote any of my recent post, as they are easy to verify. I have called some intraday and short-term turns, heck I have even poked fun at some of the vague calls this thread had seen as of late, that received congratulations. (Seems some could not tell my post were in jest.) However, I have stayed with my expectation that the overall Market will come back into the 25-year ascending trading channel identified on my NYA-COMPX Composite Chart.
Let me say this clear for those that profess I speak in tongues or I am vague...I do NOT expect this correction to be the big one. I do NOT expect it to correct as far as the Oct 98 lows. However, with valuations as high as they have been for so long, I will ALWAYS take a defensive posture whenever I believe the Market is coming to at least a medium-term top, as I did well in advance of this topping process which began as expected in April.
I did not foresee the Dow Indexes getting as much of a boost as they did during the rotation, however I did expect some. I also expected that eventually the Dow Indexes would give much of the gains back, as more fear began to set in and they were no longer perceived as safe enough.
There is more downside to this correction, but I expect a bounce soon. See my Charts and Article on the MDA Thread at:
homestead.com
Regards,
LG
Disclaimer: My posts are my opinions only and I reserve the right to be wrong on occasion. Do not base any investment decision solely on anyone's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your own investment decisions.
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