Coup Rumor Surfaces in Honduras
Summary:
On May 25 the Honduran Defense Minister expressed concern that
senior military officers are conspiring against him. The alleged
plot may stem from the fact that the military's autonomy vis-a-
vis the civilian government ended in January of this year. At
the same time, Honduras has become strategically more important
in recent months, which may be behind the Defense Minister's
decision to cry coup.
Analysis:
National Defense Minister of Honduras, Edgardo Dumas Rodriguez,
told reporters that military officers might be scheming to take
control of the country and reverse the constitutional reforms
that weakened the power of the armed forces. The government
opened an investigation to "establish whether military personnel
intended to recover the power they once held," Dumas said. Media
reports suggesting that Joint Chief of Staff Colonel Eugenio
Romero and other senior officers were conspiring against Dumas
prompted that investigation.
Certainly the threat of a military coup in Honduras is not out of
the realm of possibility. After all, the government was
overthrown by the military three times this century, and until
recently it was dominated by the military. President Carlos
Roberto Reina, who began the reforms to weaken the military's
influence over the government during the early 1990s, survived
three attempts on his life, and continuously faced the threat of
military rebellion. Reina's reforms began the process whereby
the authority and power of the armed forces were significantly
reduced. Indeed, the recent appointment of Dumas as Defense
Minister ended four decades of the Honduran military managing its
own affairs without civilian influence.
Upon assuming office, Dumas ordered an audit of the recent armed
forces commanders to determine how exactly they spent their
budgets. Until 1994 the armed forces were unaccountable, and
were known to run their own private businesses. Honduran human
rights workers have praised Dumas as a fair and honest man, and
as the perfect person to oversee the military. With civilians
finally overseeing military affairs, it is likely that tensions
will rise. Military officials will no longer have the autonomy
and freedom that they once enjoyed, which given Honduras' history
is reason enough for the military to grow restive. At the same
time, there might be other explanations for the suggestion that
the military is plotting a possible coup d'etat.
With the closure of Howard Air Force Base (AFB) in Panama,
Honduras has become more strategically important to the U.S. The
U.S. air base in Soto Cano will be used to support counter
narcotics operations in Latin America that will be based from the
Caribbean islands Aruba and Curacao. Honduras' stability is even
more vital to U.S. interests than ever before with the soon-to-
expire U.S. lease on the Panama Canal.
It is possible that this alleged threat to Honduras' stability is
nothing more than a cry for help, designed to obtain more
disaster relief from the U.S. Central America was ravaged late
last year by Hurricane Mitch, and Dumas was among those calling
for a new "Marshall Plan" to rebuild Central America. The U.S.
Congress passed a bill last week approving $1 billion in funds to
help rebuild Central America and Caribbean nations that were
ravaged by Mitch. The Honduran government might be worried about
how big of a share it will get of the $1 billion, and hope that a
threat of instability will get Uncle Sam's attention.
Interestingly, given the importance of Honduras to the U.S.
military, and U.S. cooperation with the Honduran military, the
United States might actually be in a better position than Dumas
to know the real likelihood of a coup. As such, the U.S.
military could be in a position to stave off such an attempt.
Real or fabricated, Honduras may be seeking U.S. assistance with
this latest coup allegation.
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