The very second that SDMI hardware comes out, hackers will begin dissecting the protocol and disseminating information about how to play this music on computers. The crack will come easiest in software deployed in computers.
At the same time, hardware which can play both SDMI (information obtained either ethically or unethically to decode this format) and pirate formats will begin being manufactured by so-called rogue states, Taiwan, et al, they share no love for the Japanese nor for American record companies.
Anybody that thinks that SDMI compliant hardware is going to do anything to stymie MP3 growth doesn't understand just how far the genie is out of the box. And even if SDMI is unbreakable, which is possible, people will buy players, they will re-encode the SDMI music (if it's popular enough) and re-encode it as MP3 on pirate sites.
We are in a new world now, every format is breakable, because everything can be re-encoded digitally. If one has to put RCA jacks back into the DA converter to do it, popular music will be pirated and made available at web sites and the format of choice will develop legal portals around it like MP3.COM.
The big picture isn't this format or that format. The big picture is people pirating music ON THE INTERNET. It doesn't matter about encryption, watermarks, secure payment, blah blah blah, they're are literally tens of thousands of fanatics that will relish the opportunity to stick it to the record companies, sigh, yet again. And the portals will follow the format and engage independent legal musicians to create content for it and make it cheap and easy to buy.
The real issue is "Why should I buy ANYTHING?" And it's that question that MP3.COM will live or die by.
Jeff Harrington
mp3.com |
