the middle class investing in US dollars to avoid the futlity of frequent devaluations, perhaps this de facto dollarization will force further discipline on the power structure.
Precisely !
I have secretly been suspect of the Argentinean's trek in that direction, until recently since they seem to be honest about their desire to have a stable currency. Let's not forget that while Mexico was stable during the golden years of the 50's 60's and 1/2 of the 70's, the rest of LatAm (Costa Rica excepted), was just an orgy of Roboluciones (see definition)*, military coup d'etats and the like.
Now it seems that the new breed of Presidentes that have been educated in the US and Europe, have good intentions in implementing free market systems...(still... many of them corrupted as hell, and with rampant doses of nepotism).
However, they are encountering this old guard that are incredibly capable in tricking the most capable, an easier task since they play on the nationalistic sentiment that goes well with the population at large, to the point of clouting objectivity...
I think I have mentioned the book cover (the author and title escapes my mind), about the Mexican Charro with the big moustache, who is trying to get up.... except he is stepping on his own moustache, making his rise impossible...
That is exactly what is happening to Latin America... we are our worst enemy.... yet the old guard is smart enough to say...
"The reason why we are so deep in the hole is because of the 'Gringo Capitalista' is screwing us royally...."
The bottom line is there are two choices:
1. On their own, these countries will become corruption free, (with the result that their respective currencies would become valued based on sound economic principles...), personally... NOT A CHANCE.
2. The dollarization of these economies will FORCE the respective administrations to become fiscally responsible and relatively corruption free. (I say 'relative' because at this point, corruption is in the DNA of every new born baby... <g>)... I mean to say it will take one or two generations of clean<er> administrators to really bring it to levels that are "reasonable" (unfortunately, I do not believe the world is corruption free... why expect so in LatAm?). This option has a bigger chance, but it will not be easy.
I believe we are at a crossroads... if Argentina can successfully adopt the US Dollar as their currency, and in the process force the discipline you refer to in their economy, then, I think Brazil, and hopefully Mexico will follow.... (remember that Mexico is passionately nationalistic, the south of the border version of the US "Constitutionalists", "Federalists", "Freemen", and many other wide-eyed American nationalists) <G>.
* For a definition of "Roboluciones" (and a brief explanation of Latin American economics....)
Read my view of Lat Am economics below...
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Latin American Cowism: (Public Administration á la Latina)
As president of the political party that has been in power since the beginning of human history, the revolution gave you two cows, you hired your illiterate cousin to milk them, (but secretly, you already sold the cows to your brother in law for three times the market price). Your uncle, who is the Agriculture Minister, arranged for a subsidy for five cows, and issued a mandate requiring an import permit for any milk coming from the USA, rendering such event, impossible to take place. --That is for the regular mortals. (Read peasants without political contacts).
Meanwhile your oldest son, who dropped out from the London School of Economics, because spent the tuition money in Monte Carlo without your knowledge. After three years of supposedly "studying" a Master degree in Public Administration, bribed the Federales and imported milk from the USA to satisfy local demand, making himself fabulously rich in the process, (at the expense of the people. The idiots, what insolent cretins, they had to drink the damned stuff!!).
In addition, he is secretly paying off your closest advisors so they undermine your efforts to become the next Presidente. His motives are secret, but one can imagine the size of the pay-off he is getting from whoever is promoting this.... shhhh.
All this while you find out that your youngest son, (who is a gigolo), is sleeping with your mistress-turned actress (thanks to political favors owed to you). You also find out that your wife has written a book about your life, and sold it, (behind your back), to Univision, so they can turn the entire charade into a soap opera for distribution in Latin America, and Russia. Oh yes, your mistress will be the main actress... playing the part of... well... your wife.
Luckily, you have a daughter who married the opposition leader who has already arranged for political asylum in the neighboring banana republic with a hefty (and confy), "retirement" package.... that includes a farm with... er... well, several cows and a milking contract for both countries... (a similar treaty to NAFTA).
Lastly, your long lost cousin, (from the literate side of the family), who moved to the USA, as a mojado (wetback), when the revolution first took place and he lost all his businesses, (thanks to some brilliant (!?), Marxist ideal), upon learning of your coming retirement/misfortune, has contacted you for certain business deal to import from the USA, the latest in milking technology, for both banana republics, and possibly for the rest of the entire banana tree, er... no, no, I meant Latin America.
Such deal is only possible under NAFTA, which by the way, you opposed passionately while campaigning to become Presidente of the party...
Viva la ROBOLUCIÓN !!
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Note:
Revolución = Revolution
The word ROBOLUCIÓN, does not exist, it is made up, from the verb "ROBAR" (to rob, to steal), and the word Revolución.
While it is silly...... it has long been very close to the truth in most Latin American countries, (as in 100%), ..... the exception is Argentina,.... Over there, they rob with an Italian accent.
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