CEPH Message Board - Msg: 977965

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Biotech / Medical : CEPH

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To: KurtVedder who wrote (62)	3/12/1997 10:40:00 PM
From: harkenman	of 998

The information I posted was taken from the SEC pages. Tell CEPH or the SEC that the info is deceptive. The information is given to help people know the risks in investing in a highly volatile stock from a company with no history of FDA approvals! THAT IS A FACT! Their product is targeted to an ORPHAN disease. Your posting on the Chiron thread is quite interesting and only explains the price upswings with the news but you never mentioned when the stock tanked ($5.8) in January 1995 and ( $13.4) in August 1996 (Value Line). Your information on stock price is biased on the positive side! Insider only own 3.7% of common (source Value Line) and selling is constant (Vickers). I hope they get approval because of the nature of the disease. I shorted it because of the comercial viability (poor)and the poor Phase III clinical results to date are two STRONG reasons. I shorted in November 1996 for $6K gain and so far I am $3K ahead Smith Kline discontinued their investigational agreement. Another fact from the SEC page. The FDA gives a disease Orphan status when the R&D investment is large and the return on investment is low due to disease demographics. ALS affects only 1 in 100,000 (ALS homepage) and their is an estimated 30,000 patients worldwide (Valueline) with an estimated cost of $9,000. A very limited population and this is a fact. H&Q really touts the stock and estimate $200,000,000 but they acted as lead underwritters! >>indicated they would like a third Phase III trial done because the European trial data did not show efficacy of Myotrophin. Indeed, more people died taking Myotrophin than not! Cephalon went on to show that the reason for this was that the ALS patients that died were already very "near death" and there were more "near death" patients in the Myotrophin group than in the placebo group.>> With this information we can not guarantee 100% of the population using the product. If the myotrophin results were statistically differnt to placebo the product would have been approved. The FDA will approve a drug for an orphan disease if the results merit it. The T-IND was given because of the lack of a cure for this disease. CEPH does not even have a manufacturing facility is another fact posted by me which is also in the SEC filing. Their Myotrophin product will be made by Chiron (not for free) and the profits split 50:50. Based on the Regeneron results, it appears that the brain/blood barrier drug permeability is poor which may explain the poor european results. The info you posted on INTEL is also a fact: >>Intel states that they should continue to do well BUT if the chip market changes and computers no longer need their type of chip etc. etc then Intel's profits could severely decline.>> AMD and Cyrix and competitors on the low end while SUN and DEC compete (64 bit/>500MHz) on the high end. Once Microsoft unveils Windows NT for 64 bit processors, it will be an interesting game for Intel. It is believed by the press that AMD K6 chip with MMX capabilty may be a threat to INTEL. So that disclaimer is warrented.

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