A successful company can be built on royalties. Biogen is an example.
>> I am reminded of the niche Marion Labs filled licensing in winners and developing them- they captured the lion's share of the margin. <<
That's what companies should be doing right now. Certainly, SIBI and other third-tier companies can't play that role. As time has gone by, I've resolved that lots of the potential ten-baggers are going to get picked off. I think that today's deal keeps one of them alive.
If you go back and review this entire thread, you'll see that my investment hinges largely on three observations.... nice patents, an oral-active VGCC antagonist for pain, and long-lasting effects of 1508Y in primates (the indication that it's neuroprotective). While I consider both lead programs (the phase II studies) as long-shots, I enjoy having access to them while they're backed by the patents, molecules in development at BMY and Novartis, and 3182 et al. By setting AMGN as the goal, you're being a bit ambitious. This is a leveraged investment that can fly, but it belongs in a high-risk basket. I'll settle for another BGEN.
AGPH was a ten bagger for me, and they failed by your criteria.
Again, I won't know if I like this deal until there's some guidance given to analysts, if then. For the mean time, I'm glad to get that $20 million rolling to support 3182 and other molecules.
When you figure out which mid-cap will act like a Marion, let us all know. I am certain that some biotechs are going to get picked off at a fraction of their value, and I'd like to invest in the companies that will get them.
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