Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: RBlatch who wrote (45533)	5/26/1999 11:33:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	of 95453

The $5 a barrel oil prediction was from the Economist magazine and Simmons tried to talk the writer out of the article. Also don't forget the predictions of $10 a barrel oil for the next SEVEN years. Since even the IEA believes that oil inventories are being drawn down now and the "extensive" OPEC cuts are supposed to go through next March, there is a good chance that we are going to see "the answer" to how much oil is really "out there" sometime this year. The actual estimates are all over the map (remember the missing 300 million barrels). At some point this year, we may start to see refineries all over the world getting uncomfortable with how low their crude storage level is. Then it will become obvious that there is no more crude inventory sitting around somewhere in the world ready to replenish the refinery inventory. At that point we will know, more or less how much oil there is in the world. It will also mean that OPEC will have to break/alter their agreement to get supply and demand back in line and they might just be slow to do it for the chance they are demigoged for "not sticking to their quotas". Things are bound to get interesting later this year.:)

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