Peter V,
I agree with thinking about the future, and if I may take a stab at it, here is my two cents worth. There are 14-15mm heelsticks done in the US annually. SPRX, not a very good product, according to the industry, estimates the worldwide bilirubin market at $180mm annually. About 1/3 of that is US, and I believe they charge somewhere around $5 for their test, which is not very helpful, so CCSI's market according to those figures could be $120mm in the US.
The majority, around 70% of the sticks are done in NICU's ,say 9-10mm, and that represents about 600 some odd hospitals. If CCSI is able to join with someone the penetration should occur more quickly, if they don't I would guess it will take them 2 years to penetrate that market alone. By themselves I have given them a 30% penetration in year 2, or say 3.0mm lensettes @$10 per. There will be revenues from sales of machines also, and I would guess $1500+ gross profit, but the bet is that hospitals, pediatricians, and home health care will ramp up also in that time frame, and my base guess could prove to be very conservative, and because these are recurring revenues I attach a higher multiple, say 25x. As they also have foreign approvals, there is a possibility of teaming up with regional distributors there, and that could be additive.
Now, we really jump into the sublime. Giving them no credence for what they already have, I am sure no one will give them anything for other markets either, but my guess is dentistry is going to be the surprise. No FDA, a few key firms in the arena, over 60mm applications a year, for bonding and caps, and there is some potentail add ons to my guesses from above. The past is past, the future is what I bet on, and I am betting that we will see them make some major inroads into both of these markets in the next 2 years, and I also have 3.3mm shares as non-believers, with a limited float. For my money a decent shot at making some dough. |
