< I was wondering where Slider went... >
...still on vacation - just checking in ; not much computer time of late.
OPEC seems to really be serious about banging the drum that they will comply at levels meeting, or exceeding expectations. They keep talking about $20 Brent. June's release of May compliance #'s has to be good. Even positive comments on Venezeula holding the line lately.
I still love Domestic Natural Gas producers at a 3:1 weighting to drillers & service companies; untill we fall below 320 M boe in storage and rise above 135 offshore GOM rigs -trending to 150. When we hit those numbers - the oilpatch will be back to work.
Bought some GIFI here at $10 & change - 50% off of ''recent'' highs - with the Petronius contract in hand - go figure.... ???? Analysts estimates have been lowered - I think GIFI is talking down expectations and I smell ''earnings surprise'' brewing later this year - real, real cheap given this enviroment and it's recent highs.
BULL - VRC in comparison to its peers here, sub $9 is tempting - $8 is a Strong BUY & gives an incentive to wait for that backlog to be repaired .... want GLBL a little cheaper here, was hoping for a VTS selloff on the downgrade to $14ish, that may have been merely wishfull thinking. Bought more RIG here of late - again, I believe RIG is the best buy in the patch; many mutual funds and institutions can NOT own a foreign registered/incorporated company (Cayman Islands) and have to steadilly dump and sell out of RIG - it's an anomaly buying opportunity imho (I'm loaded).
There are still some screaming buys in Nat Gas stocks.... still some homework that needs to be done in this area imho...
*********************************************************************************
PS fwiw; Deutsche Banks Oil analysts carry a lot of weight and credibility on the Street; and are followed by many hedge funds. Here is the "Bear case" ...
<< Despite the day's gains, the market remains weighed down by a big stock overhang, analysts said.
The Deutsche Bank Energy Group in New York said it calculates that inventories in the West's OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) member nations are still approximately 170 million barrels above normal. The Paris-based OECD has 29 largely industrialized member nations.
''While it appears that OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) may have prevented a dramatic inventory build in the second quarter by reducing output, we are not convinced that oil inventories will decline in the current period,'' said Deutsche Bank energy analyst Michael Young.
''Depending on how demand unfolds, we still project that oil inventories could increase by upwards of 1.0 million barrels per day in the second quarter,'' he said.
Refining and marketing margins will remain under pressure because of the cumbersome inventory picture and less than robust demand, he said.
''Crude oil prices may trade trade sideways to down over the next several months as oil markets evaluate and adjust to these factors,'' he said.>>
********************************************************************************
...this guy is predicting a 1.0 Million boe per day inventory ''build'' in Q2 - that's 30 Million boe - moving us back up to 365 M boe ? .... I just do not see that.... don't know where this guy sees a 30 M boe build from ? I could see us hovering around 335 M boe here - and if we crack 320-325 M boe - BAMM ! - we're off to the races... The Deutsche analyst has to be predicting OPEC cheating, or he's just totally off the page in predicting demand imho...????
Lets see if the Street will take us on a breakout of OSX 80-85+ here on the June reporting of May compliance #'s for OPEC... With all the OPEC posturing and table pounding on $20 Brent - I have to believe that the OPEC compliance will be solid here...
Gary B - what are the EW's saying here ? |
