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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (45536)5/27/1999 10:04:00 AM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (4) of 95453
 
Slider, According to ODB the Deutsche assessment of upcoming oil supply numbers is radically different from those of Goldman Sachs, and Merril Lynch. It sounds to me like Deutsche may be a "missing barrels" analyst.

Matt Simmons (in ODB again)has said that the chance of there being missing barrels is near zero. He has also said that if those missing barrels don't show up between now and the end of June that they won't show at all, and never existed. Simmons says to watch the OECD numbers for "missing barrels". If OECD stocks start to fall, the market will get "very tight, very fast". Simmons has also indicated the the recent "backwardization" in the futures market has signaled a tightening of supplies near term.

Perhaps the Saudi's "know" there are no "missing barrels" and are thus making bold predictions about 18 - 20 Brent soon? My bet is that in June the ME part of OPEC really starts to go after US and European supplies with a "vengeance". Making dramatic annoucements of supply cuts to US and European customers WILL (imo) shake up NYMEX pit traders big time!

So, what to look for:
1. OECD stock numbers.
2. May OPEC compliance numbers.
3. Backwardization stats.
4. June OPEC cut anouncements

Anyway, have a good vacation, and get back to the board on a regular basis as soon as you are able. We all need that Slider the Bloodhound nose of yours. <g>

Bull
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