Why?
Because the answers are NOT in the daily price fluctuations...the answers lie in
conversations with customers, competitors and so forth.
And if everybody understood that, the traffic in this group would be
1) about 5% of what it is
2) about twice as valuable.
Gregg, I can't believe you give away such valuable analysis (not just this post) for free. You have absolutely improved my investing. As I watched people around me cashing out options at pre-split $100/shr, I held on by my fingernails and thought back on Message 9037212 and
Message 8938991
Perhaps I am oversimplifying, but
1) This is currently a $2.50 earnings per post-split share per year stock, with about 35 million CDMA customers in the world.
2) In a few years, there will be more than 350 million CDMA customers in the world, with no real reason not to figure on billions of customers on some 10, 20 year time scale.
3) Liberally, in a few years with 350 million CDMA customers QCOM is earning $25+/shr and trading at its same PE so in a few years this is a 10+ banger
4) Conservatively, competition and other factors push QCOM down to $12.50 earnings and PE drops to 20 to reflect whatever, and QCOM is a 2.5 banger.
THEREFORE:
No matter how you slice it, it is too early to sell.
And today's price means nothing as long as it is south of $200 or so.
PS - Gregg, I'd like to diversify my 4-bangers. Any suggestions other than QCOM?
Thanks! |
