spunky71, thanks for the thoughtful response.
If the market for CCSI is $120mm, and they get 30 percent penetration in the first year (that seems high, but I'll go with it), that's only $36mm total revenue, but you have to account for manufacturing, distribution and overhead costs, which I think reduces the revenue to at most 30%, so about $12mm for income. As for the machines, let's assume all 600 NICUs buy one (overestimate, but it may account for your home healthcare and pediatrician offices), at $1500 profit to CCSI (they cost $3000-5000, and CCSI will neither manufacture or distribute, so that figure seems high), profit is only $900K. So for US sales, earnings could be as much as $13 million, at 25x earnings, a share price of $20.96.
As for dentristry, I haven't seen any substantive PRs about this (not a surprise), so it's hard for me to begin to estimate the market for it. Is CCSI actively marketing in that area?
I think your estimates are too high, but I see where you are going with them. Thanks |
