Bill, I think I am being reasonable. It is really pretty straightforward. If the company's technology is as proprietary as it appears, and if they have finally gotten the bugs worked out in terms of production, the revenue projections of $1 billion in 3 years, while significant, don't seem entirely unrealistic. And if their technology is really that good, then Intel type margins (i.e., 30% pre-tax)don't seem preposterous. And given the tax breaks they're undoubtedly receiving for building a plant in Northern Ireland, combined with the tax loss carryforwards they have domestically, its not unreasonable to think that their tax burden will be relatively light for several years to come. The EPS/share price projections flow from that. That's all I'm saying. Low teens by year end would be fine, but in my humble opinion, the ultimate payoff will be far larger. There are a lot of "ifs" in my logic, but, what the hell, that's what makes a market. All I know is that I fer damn sure don't want to be short this particular stock. Stick around for 3 years, and we'll see what happens.
Eli |
