Deutsche Bank's Edward Yardeni: U.S. Stock Market Comment
quote.bloomberg.com
Washington, May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Comment from Edward Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, on the outlook for the U.S. stock market:
Yardeni said the Dow Jones Industrial Average will fall to 7,000 by the end of this year or early next year because of problems associated with the year 2000 computer bug and the global economic environment.
The average could then rise to 15,000 by the year 2005, he said. ''We want this market to get to 15,000, but it doesn't have to get there by August,'' he said, speaking at the American Iron and Steel Institute, a steel industry trade group meeting this week in New York. ''I think there's been way too much complacency and way too much optimism'' for the short-term economic outlook, he said.
Weak economies abroad and the Y2K problems will result in a ''pretty wicked recession'' that will last six to 12 months, Yardeni said, likening it to the recession of 1973 to 1974.
But unlike the 1970s, when the oil supply was disrupted, this time the disruption will be in computer systems, he said.
Yardeni earlier this month said in a report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's descriptions of programs to fix the Year 2000 glitch are too optimistic and that spending figures suggest many large companies left themselves only a year to finish more than half of the work. |
