Sepracor-Looks very promising Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: Bob Swift who wrote (3077)	5/27/1999 7:28:00 PM
From: Bob Swift	Read Replies (2) of 10280

After a cup of coffee, I did a little more calculation base on the expected date of roll out of individual drug. Assumption 1: SGP will pay the 5% for the life of their patent and then generic eat their lunch. Assumption 2: the same for Prozac 14% for a few year and then dies. Assumption 3: SEPR only earn what IVX or FRX earns =11-12% net margin, Assumption 4: No blockbuster (higher unlikely but this is suppose to be worst case) Assumption 5: No growth in the market for any of the drugs with time. The earning per share (40 millions shares) and the price of stock at PE=27 are as follows: 1999 discounting 30% from 2000 is 73 2000 $ 3.5 ; 95 2001 $ 4.8 ; 130 2002 $14.0 ; 379 2003 $14.3 ; 387 2004 $14.3 ; 162 2005 $ 6.0 ; 162 2006 $ 6.3 ; 169 2007 $ 6.7 ; 180 2008 $ 6.8 ; 183 2009 $ 7.6 ; 205 This is my worst case,now I can rest.

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