Larry, I have to agree with you on this one, yes, AOL will grow, but
not like RocketMan's script, it was true in the last 5 years but
the next 5 years will be different.
I am long on AOL an hoping to make more from it but concerns are growing daily.
Even Henry B. from ML projects 35 Million by 2002, that's 3 years from now, RocketMan's 170 Millions subscribers claim has no base, even with AOL Europe's 10 millions, south America's 3 millions, 170 millions is still a crazy number.
The near term of AOL's future looks fine, I am more concerned the
longer term:
(1) More and more of free PC offer with ISP contract will become a
trend, it is an open war in that arena, any box maker or
PC retailer can choose their own ISP, Gateway, Dell, CPQ
plus numerous local dealers are eyeing that revenue, even AOL
plans to offer the same this summer,
this will cost AOL more to sign up new member. Pressure 1
(2) Free-ISP-with-your-own-PC trend will not die down, bigger ones
will survive, even though it is slow going, but going is for sure,
this will cost AOL more to sign up new member. Pressure 2
(3) The closest connection everyone has is either phone or cable, wireless is not a trend, it will take time to become one.
ATT with ATHM/XCIT/TCI/Media One/RoadRunner/Comcast will
challenge AOL on more than just the CABLE front, because
ATT has it's own worldNet ISP, ATT has wireless, partner
with MSFT won't do any good for AOL, most importantly, ATHM was
unknown to a lots of people, how many people actually go to
ATHM's web site? With XCIT, ATHM can even sell cable modem on
the XCIT home page, that's a threat because 25 millions of
eyeballs will then notice ATHM's existence. pressure 3
I am particularly pissed off that AOL insists on economic
package with CABLE operator, not even trying symbolically
to sign-up some partnership with cable operators, who is going
to pay that fee? the user, not AOL, if a member cannot afford
the CABLE, he or she will stay with AOL but the option is there.
Even though we all know cable modem is not a trend in reality
but the market thinks so, the analysts think so, the AOL's stock
price reflects that.
How many people are ready to use hand-held tools for web? how many
people are ready to use webTV for web? how many people are ready
for satellite? I bet the number is much and much less than
the people who are ready to use cable modem for web, yes, DSL
is quite the same, but the stock market wants to see AOL to
have some forms of cable deals, that is the bottom line for
investor, I thought 'to increase share holder's value' is
the most important mission for a company's higher management.
AOL should talk to ATT, you can't depend on the government, it takes
too long to change law, there is no time to waste, whoever gets the cable modem will use, say ATHM's XCIT portal, that is a nice one, not
like the ATHM's page, why people wants to change for AOL's cable deal? unless it is much cheaper in fee.
AOL anywhere will not be true without cable hook-up.
|
