Regarding my optimism, I'm suffering more than most anyone I suppose due to my brilliant (long term I hope) or stupid (short term for sure) loading up on margin. Guess I can't resist a real steal at 1/2 off, which is what AXC is here. The story hasn't changed, only the price, and the price should make you more bullish, not less. The wait for KM is longer than I or others anticipated, but it IS being currently negotiated, so no one has given up on it yet. It IS coming to market later this year with Maxtor, and I assume the completion or working on of the amplifier chip is a non event, too small a project to mention. As Peter Lynch says, "It's always darkest before the dawn. On the other hand, it's always darkest before pitch black." But it's not pitch black! DST alone is propelling 100% eps growth estimates for 97 and 98, and that story has nothing whatsoever to do with KM. Remind you that PA merchant group says without KM its worth 10-12 this year, and Redchip said last year DST is worth 7-8. $8 is still 25% higher than the ludicrous 6.5 we're at now. Load up, or falsely call it pitch black. I've got a special post just waiting for the next KM announcement and the subsequent wakeup call to the investment community....VINDICATED!
I've not seen any part of the 10K other than what Gus posted here so far in 2287, but here's what I found different in the KM part.
The first paragraph is all rephrased, offering a little more technical info- none new tho.
New sentence, "the co. has pending patent applications for related inventions"
Also, that KM "may have potential application in flexible magnetic media, such as floppy disks and magnetic tape"
Then down quite a ways to the paragraph that talks about continuing negotiations. Before they said they intended to, now they say they're continuing to. At least they're still at the negotiating table, presumably with all of the same ones. No drive manufacturer has given it up for lost, nor has Ampex. Ampex's only caveats is that the price might be too hi, or that new tech or economics might make it undesirable. Bottom line, right now it is desirable, and all are currently negotiating, but something better might come along leapfrogging KM's benefit.
They also anticipate (expect) to have to shell out lots more $ on R&D, engineering and capital equipment to further develop KM. Before they made it sound iffy, now they know it'll take lots more $ to fully commercialize it.
All in all, almost nothing different as Gus said, but what few things they did change seem to me to betray more confidence that KM will be a real GO in the future. If not in other disk drives other than Maxtor, they have yet to explore magnetic tape and floppies- meaning I suppose at least the outdated 1.44MB, on up to 3M's 120MB LS-120, Iomega and Syquest's mega floppies too???
Still suffering from the boring waiting game. No move from 10K, now have to wait either for new brokerages, analysts, KM contract with WD or other smaller ones, or even later earnings gains in future quarters! Maddening to hear Jerry Klein agree that it should be in the teens now, and then see it go down on same good news. 11 to 6 in 4 months is a bear market if I ever heard of one! |
