Gastón,
It will take me some time to compose a proper answer to your questions. I am no expert in the field. Briefly in layman's terms, if the economy runs a consistent trade deficit, there will be a constant outflow of dollars which is not sustainable from ever increasing borrowing of dollars.
Even if the country has a trade surplus does not guarantee suitability. Every dollar from exported goods is recycled through the economy between 2 to 5+ times. This is the multiplier. Each time it goes through the banking system additional bank deposits are created for which currency can be needed. If these deposits are used to purchase imports (or transfered out), then currency leaving the economy will exceed the dollars gained from exports and the economy will have a trade deficit. This constrains the multiplier.
If you then consider, that the banks use these deposits to create money, loans, the currency cycle becomes even further extended. etc. etc. If dollars are borrowed to finance construction or other high multiplier projects the same process occurs. etc. etc.
The healthier growing economy , the higher the multiplier; unfortunately, this means the larger the demand for and outflow of dollars. Limits on borrowing will limit the supply of currency, which will limit the multipliers and growth of the economy. This could especially effect the creation of lower paying jobs.
Add in government programs, debt payments and borrowing to the private sector and it becomes very complicated, and unpredictable. This is reason simulation is necessary.
I am a proponent for a major economic modeling, detailed simulation project for Latin America. Even though there has been significant progress since I first studied developing economies years ago, it seems little has advanced in the theory, analysis, effectiveness, or implementability of economic development programs in much of Latin America. The same economic arguments, policy questions and criticisms are being discussed. It is time to stop discussions only based on economic and political theory so more effective programs can be implemented.
I will spend more time this weekend answering your and Daniel's questions. Of course this represents my opinions and perspective. “ECONOMICS IS A DARK ART where theory changes with perspective, details and implementability.”
Skeet
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