Even the runup to 21 7/8 was on relatively low volume of about 110,000 shares. However, the January run up to 26 (closed around 24) was over 500,000 shares, ie.) somebody big or a lot of little guys all thought that the TGET future looked bright. Since then, volume has been light again and a constant slide back, uh they forgot. Seems like biotech is out of favor again, everybody is buying retail and cyclicals who are riding the wave of the good economy, and anything on the major indexes because the index funds are getting pumped full of cash from sheep investors following the herd and expecting history to keep repeating itself. Technology stocks seem to be in the same doldrums. Why invest in a speculative volatile industry, when the likes of big ol' stable WalMart et. al. can make you better returns? Eventually too much money chasing the same stocks will push the prices way too high (similar to a pyramid scheme). But, the big money will notice first and pull the wool out of the sheep, (alot more painful than just having some sheared off), then retail and good economy vibe stocks won't seem so promising anymore. It's hard to bend the plastic at WalMart when your portfolio just took a big hit. Then after the dust settles, and the markets flatten out, speculative stocks will come back in vogue. In the meantime, I don't think biotech will participate in a run up that matches the big indexes, and when the fall comes, it will fall with it, but biotech will bounce back while the others sit. The end result though, is that as an industry IMO biotech keeps getting more undervalued even though the technical progress is significant and the pipeline is full. Personally, I'd rather buy and hold in a historically (last 2 years) undervalued industry than one run up on momentum alone. Of course this is all just idle speculation on my part. The economy is changing so much from past trends that it seems like the economists are sputtering trying to figure it out. Productivity soaring, employment soaring, unemployment only falling a little at a time, (gee, those new workers are just coming out of the woodwork, maybe unemployment has been understated for years) hard to find skilled employees to hire, but plenty if your willing to train them (the government via schools don't seem interested in educating and training anymore) but wages staying down, while the markets hit new high after new high. When you throw in all the global shrinking as everybody goes international, and global trade increases, it really confuses the picture. Then try to factor in the former future economic powerhouse who would rule all economies (Japan) whose government couldn't strategize itself out of a paper bag (need to protect that local paper and any other local business no matter how inefficient in the name of self-support, just like the past millenium, oh except for they need the cash to buy oil so the lights stay on). Then try to factor in the biggest potential inflator of all, energy, all the prices are dropping at the production level, but going up on the retail end because they like making big profits, and things get really hard to predict. It's a new world order and the old trends don't mean squat. Makes prediction a bitch.
Sorry for the economic diatribe, CGEN is not exactly the right thread for it, but I'm getting frustrated because no body loves my pet biotech industry anymore. I think I'll hunt for a more appropriate thread to copy this to later. Seems like a rant others may enjoy.
Hang in there, CGENs time will come. |
