Misc Responses:
J Garcia - I don't think you'll have to be patient for much longer. As you know the signs of a recovery usually appear 3 to 6 months before they show up in profit and the signs are clearly there for IDT (strong order growth on existing products plus poised to introduce range of new products which collectively will significantly add to the revenue base). The only question is whether IDT is ready to talk about this positive outlook in advance of achieveing the business results (during the April conference call). My best guess is that they will have a positive bias, but they will also hold something back because they don't want to get themselves in a position of underperforming against expectations anymore. They will have a positive tone because, the stock is vastly undervalued at current price levels (trading at 1993 prices), Large institutional investors will not be patient much longer (FMR and Merrill Lynch), they have invested heavily in their organization by bringing in people with the right set of skills and experiences to take IDT to the next stage in its evolution and they want to demonstrate that this investment is paying off. We'll know soon, but I am looking for a return to the 13-15 dollar range by April 23 (day after earnings release). As a long term investor I typically don't care about timing, but in this case its just interesting to speculate.
Joan - FYI Brian B. is not the CFO (that's Bill Snyder), Brian is the Director of Investor Relations / Treasurer.
Mat - I tend to respectfully disagree with your view on the importance (or lack thereof) of a dedicated investor relations group. In my opinion, managements goal is to maximize shareholder value. There are two key ways to achieve this, first (and clearly most important) is to manage the business to maximize financial results. Second, is to market these accomplishments to the investment community to ensure that a companies external stock price is consistent with its intrinsic business value (I am not saying to create perceived value above the fundamentals, but to insure the fundamentals are reflected in the stock price). The efficicent market hypothesis may be broadly accurate in the longrun for stocks as a whole, but in my view, the market is grossly inefficient as it relates to valueing individual stocks over time. All good companies market themselves well to the investment community and that makes them great companies. In my view, IDT has the business fundamentals to achieve greatness, but lacks the marketing.
CR Lum - My policy is to never believe anything that can't be confirmed by multiple sources. What you say may be true, but could you please identify the location of that information, so I can read it and interpret it myself. There is often much confusion around announcements such as these, since, for competitive reasons, most of these items are dual sourced (this is the case with silicon graphics where both NEC and IDT claim to be the primary supplier for MIPS processors, when in reallity they both supply SG at about the same levels). I never dismiss information, but I always confirm it for myself.
K |
