US Digital cable box sales........................
broadband-daily.com
Digital Cable Box Shipments Could Reach 4.2 Mil. in 1999
Digital cable set-top shipments continued their upward steady climb in 1998 , and could top 4 mil. units this year according to our analysis. As cable and the Internet intersect next year, set-top shipments could reach 6.6 mil. units in 2000 (see table).
DIGITAL SET-TOP SHIPMENTS (mil.)
1997 1998 1999 2000
General Instrument (GI)
DCT 1000, 1200, 2000 0.7 2.7 2.7 2.0
DCT 5000 - - 0.5 2.0
Total GI 0.7 2.7 3.2 4.0
Scientific Atlanta - 0.290 0.8 1.9
Toshiba - - 0.1 0.2
Pioneer - - 0.1 0.2
Other - - - 0.3
Total 0.7 3.0 4.2 6.6
Source: Broadband Intelligence © 1999.
The biggest set-top maker is Horsham, PA-based General Instrument (GI), which has been shipping a steady stream of digital boxes in fulfillment of its monster 15 mil. unit order placed by a group of cable companies in 12/97. GI shipped 2.7 mil. boxes in 1998, mostly early generation models not fully geared to delivering interactive services.
GI's shipments could climb to 3.2 mil. this year, with shipments of its gold-standard model, the next generation DCT 5000, kicking in during the second half of 99. The DCT 5000, which will come equipped with a cable modem and enable a raft of new interactive functions, could represent half of all GI boxes shipped next year - 2 mil. out of the total 4 mil. likely to go out.
GI competitor Scientific Atlanta (SA) is already shipping its next generation digital box, the Explorer 2000, with the number of units climbing to an expected 800K this year, up from the 290K SA shipped last year.
Most of SA's boxes are going to its biggest customer, Time Warner, which has ordered 1.1 mil. Explorer 2000's for its digital launches, the bulk of which are slated to begin in earnest later this year. Around 33 Time Warner headends or regional sites serving 8 to 10 mil. subs. are already retrofitted to launch fully interactive digital service. SA licensees Toshiba and Pioneer could see the beginnings of their box shipments this year.
The relatively steady ramp-up in box shipments from 3 mil. in 98 to 4.2 mil. this year to 6.6 mil. next year doesn't necessarily jive with the more steep growth in actual digital homes. A lot of operators, particularly AT&T (formerly TCI) and Cox took receipt of more digital boxes than they deployed in 97 and 98 to take advantage of regulations permitting them to spread the cost of digital boxes across all users.
Box prices continue to drop - from around $425 on average in 1997 to $350 this year (see table below). The price per unit, however, can range from around $290 for the prevailing GI box (DCT 2000) up to $350 for the Explorer 2000 (which doesn't yet a modem built in) to $390 for the DCT 5000.
Box prices could dip even lower to an average of $300 next year as scale economics take effect. The combination of the increasing shipments and the decreasing cost should boost manufacturer revenues for digital boxes from around $1.4 bil. this year up to almost $2 bil. ($1.98 bil.) in 2000.
Digital Box Shipments - Market Value
1997 1998 1999 2000
Number of Boxes $ 0.7 3.0 4.2 6.6
Average Box Price $ 425 360 350 300
Total Market Value (mil.) $ 298 1,080 1,470 1,980
Source: Broadband Intelligence © 1999.
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