Thanks, Mike, for another valuable piece of thinking and, once again, you provide right answers and hit right questions. And I most certainly agree with you about the need to have a framework to work around!
Perhaps I will limit my comments at this stage to say that I tend to agree with you on the fact that "this may be more than just another deep correction" or, rather, extending the discussion to the techs or the broader market, my guts tell me that the bottom has not been reached. What I seem to read and hear, whether from magazine, bulletin boards and people around ... is that everybody is just about ready for the coming rally. This, for example, was the tone I perceived in Teflon's post yesterday although, granted, there was no clear timing in terms of just when it would happen.
I believe that we are far from the general level of fear that could be felt in the market late last Summer, with all the surrounding domestic and intl. geopolitical intrigues going on at the time; valuations were not nearly as high as they are today, etc. I am surprised that the "coming rally", for once, appears to be anticipated by all players. Correct, I did not have margin call-type data (for example) available at the time, that would alllow me to make a comparison with today's situation. But sentiment and confidence indicators just seem too positive to me to make a significant upswing ... possible.
My only interest, if I can say so, is SFE and I would just be surprised to see the broader market that supports it take off rapidly (IMHO). Hope someone can tell me why I am wrong! And thanks again for your digging into some of the technical issues tied to the SFE IPO's. |
